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December 5, 2024 (90) Comments Green Finance

Federal Reserve Makes Significant Rate Cuts

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In a much-anticipated move, the U.SFederal Reserve announced on Wednesday a 50 basis point cut to interest rates, marking a significant shift towards monetary easingThis decision, the first of its kind since June 2021, reflects the Fed's strategy to bolster a cooling job market while continuing efforts to bring down inflation ratesFollowing the announcement, the reaction of the dollar was mixed—it initially dipped before rallyingIn the equity markets, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both reached record highs during the trading session but eventually settled lower by the end of the day.

This rate cut serves as a fulfillment of Wall Street traders' long-held hopes for a substantial easing of monetary policyThe stark decline in interest rates is seen as justified within the context of this year’s significant uptick in stock and bond markets, as the era of stringent monetary policy appears to be reversing

Interestingly, however, after the Fed's announcement, there was a notable downturn across almost all major asset classes, from equities to treasuries, and from corporate bonds to commodities as the trading day came to a close.

In the earlier hours of trading, both the Dow and the S&P 500 recorded historic peaks, only to relinquish those gains as the market adjusted to a more sobering economic realityThe two-year U.STreasury yields, often sensitive to policy shifts, fell to a low of 3.54% during the day, only to increase by the close, mirroring the behavior of the ten-year treasury rates.

As previously analyzed, the market had largely anticipated the Fed's substantial rate cut prior to the decisionHowever, the aggressiveness of such moves is usually indicative of an economy in recession or facing a significant crisisCurrent economic data shows that, while growth is decelerating, the U.S. economy has yet to enter a state of recession

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Therefore, the Fed's drastic action emphasizes the policymakers' concerns regarding the slowing economy and job market, which could weigh heavily on a sustained rise in equities, particularly for companies that are sensitive to economic fluctuations.

To restore confidence in the market, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell attempted to reassure investors during a news conference, stating that the Fed is confident the labor market can remain strong amidst moderate economic growth and enduring inflation ratesHe also cautioned against assuming that the 50 basis point reduction sets an ongoing pattern of aggressive cuts, emphasizing that future decisions will hinge on economic data results.

According to the Fed's dot plot released alongside the rate decision, a clearer trajectory for monetary policy is revealed

There remains an expectation in the market for an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of this yearLooking ahead to 2025, further cuts totaling 100 basis points are anticipated, aligning with the previous dot plot from JuneMarket participants' median forecasts indicate that policymakers are broadly expecting an aggregate cut of one percentage point by 2025. Nonetheless, bond traders hold a differing perspective, citing the current economic complexities and uncertainties, suggesting that the Fed might resort to even more aggressive cuts to stimulate economic growth and stabilize financial markets.

Recently, the stock market's pullback can be attributed to several factors, with one significant element being the extensive pricing in of rate cut expectationsThis process has led to a considerable rise in stock valuations

Analysts have conducted in-depth research and predict an extraordinary 14% growth in earnings for companies within the S&P 500 index by 2025—a strong figure that exceeds historical averagesIn such an overly optimistic market environment, investor sentiment has been notably buoyantWhen the Fed announced its first rate cut, market enthusiasm surged as participants poured in, driving stock prices to nearly unprecedented valuation levelsCurrently, the price-to-earnings ratio over the past four quarters exceeds 25 times.

Should subsequent U.S. economic data reveal greater than anticipated weaknesses, pushing closer to the brink of recession, it would inevitably pose heightened challenges for the stock market, likely leading to a profound and extended correctionHowever, considering present circumstances, the recent adjustments in U.S. stocks, while notable, still trend toward an upward direction

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