Powell's Latest Remarks on Interest Rate Cuts
Advertisements
On December 4th, the American stock market witnessed a remarkable surge, with all three major indices—Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500—climbing to historic highsThis milestone marks a pivotal moment in the financial landscape, as investors reacted positively to a mix of economic data and Federal Reserve commentaryBy the close of the market, the Dow had risen by 0.69% to settle at 45014.04 points, the NASDAQ surged 1.30% to reach 19735.12 points, and the S&P 500 advanced by 0.61% to close at 6086.49 points.
In the realm of economic indicators, the ADP report revealed that October witnessed an increase of 146,000 jobs, which slightly missed the forecast of 150,000 but represented a significant dip from the prior month's gain of 233,000. Such data appears to reflect a cooling job market that, while not alarming, has contributed to a cautious optimism regarding sustained economic growth.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell articulated a sense of vigilance regarding economic maneuvers, emphasizing a gradual approach toward neutral interest rates
Although the risks for further downturns seem to be lower than anticipated, Powell highlighted the importance of maintaining prudence as the Fed navigates its monetary policy landscape.
With U.Sindices setting new records, the Federal Reserve adopts a cautious stance toward neutral rates.
On the same day, the saga of tech giants continued to unfoldNVIDIA was a standout performer, leading a wave of optimism among large technology stocks with a robust increase of 3.47%. Furthermore, Myer Technologies saw an impressive surge exceeding 23% as it reported significantly stronger-than-expected earnings for its third fiscal quarter and a formidable guide for Q4. Similarly, Blackstone climbed over 11% thanks to positive quarterly results and elevated annual revenue forecasts.
Market analysts at J.P
- Cross-Border E-Commerce: Entering the Elimination Round
- India's Industrial Dream Crumbling?
- Toyota's Embrace of Electrification: An Awakening?
- Black Friday: Gold Ready to Shine
- Powell's Latest Remarks on Interest Rate Cuts
Morgan, led by Andrew Taylor, remain tactically bullish until year-end, citing a favorable macroeconomic environment, profit growth, and the continued support from the Federal Reserve as key drivers for their optimism.
Global asset management titan Vanguard cautioned that the recent enthusiasm over AI stocks may have overstretched their near-term potential, indicating a possible risk of price corrections for relevant companiesConversely, BlackRock released its 2025 outlook advocating for an overweight position on U.Sequities, asserting that the AI theme still holds expansive growth opportunitiesVanguard’s skepticism juxtaposes BlackRock’s more optimistic, long-term perspective on the potential of technological expansion in the AI domain.
Focusing on the broader economic horizon, the ADP job report indicates that while hiring did not meet projections, it nonetheless suggests a resilient labor market, which is positive for the Federal Reserve
The healthcare, education, and construction sectors showed significant hiring increases, in contrast to a notable drop of 26,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, marking its largest decline in over a yearFurthermore, retention wage growth has risen to a 25-month high, indicating persisting wage pressures within the market.
During a speaking engagement at the DealBook conference hosted by The New York Times, Chairman Powell remarked that the current economic performance in the U.Shas exceeded September expectationsThis improvement allows the Federal Reserve to proceed with caution in terms of interest rate adjustments, approaching a neutral stance without hasty actions.
Powell referred to the Fed's Beige Book—one of his favored economic indicators—illustrating a slight growth in economic activity in November
It further highlighted a general optimism among businesses about future demand, although a contrasting narrative emerged in which the U.Seconomy appears to be edging toward stagnation with recruitment waning and price rises being minimalInflation, while still elevated, is projected to gradually subside, particularly as housing costs stabilize.
While inflation remains above the 2% target, Powell sees signs of a gradual retreat in inflationary pressuresThis is underscored by the strong labor market, which shows no signs of abrupt weakeningHe underscored that the Federal Reserve’s previous rate cut was a supportive measure for the employment landscape, and future adjustments would depend on forthcoming employment and inflation dataIn response to speculation about another rate cut in December, Powell called for flexibility in the Fed's approach, ensuring that monetary policies remain steady and not overly influenced by prevailing debt levels.
In his remarks, Powell continues to champion the independence of the Federal Reserve, which remains supported by Congress
He dismissed ideas around a "shadow Fed chair" as unfounded, stating that the prevailing sentiments on Capitol Hill reinforce the notion that the independence of the Fed is secure and not at risk.
Simultaneously, other Federal Reserve officials urged a patient and cautious policy approachStLouis Fed President James Bullard warned that despite a potential convergence toward the 2% inflation target in the next two years, recent data suggests augmenting risks around stagnation, implying that the pace of rate cuts should be temperedRichmond Fed President Tom Barkin echoed this sentiment, advocating for more restrictive policies and a slower normalization process.
In the midst of these financial and political currents, news emerged that Paul Atkins, a seasoned advocate for digital assets and financial regulation, is poised to assume the role of SEC Chairman, following Gary Gensler's planned exit on January 20. This appointment appears to invigorate the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin rising close to 3% intraday, touching nearly $99,000 before stabilizing at $98,531 at the time of reporting.
Conversely, the dollar index retraced by 0.04%, concluding at 106.321 as trading wrapped up in New York
The euro traded at 1.0514 against the dollar, an increase from the previous day's 1.0504; similarly, the British pound appreciated to 1.2700 from 1.2668.
Apple explores AWS's latest AI chips, diversifying AI training approaches.
Sector-wise, the S&P 500 saw mixed results, with five sectors gaining and six decliningInformation Technology surged ahead with a notable 1.77% increase, while Energy stocks faced the largest declines, dropping 2.47%.
The tech sector experienced a rally, with AMD rising nearly 4%, while NVIDIA and Micron Technology climbed over 3%. Oracle, Amazon, and Eli Lilly each rose more than 2%, with Tesla, Alphabet (Google A), Microsoft, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices also witnessing positive movements exceeding 1%. On the contrary, Intel faced a significant decline exceeding 2% following a tumultuous departure of its CEO.
Apple edged up 0.15% as it actively evaluates AWS's latest AI chips for potential applications in its models like "Apple Intelligence." Benoit Dubin, the director of Apple’s machine learning and AI, noted that the utilization of Amazon's Internetia and Graviton chips has enhanced search service efficiency by 40%. Apple is also looking to employ AWS's new Trainium2 chip for proprietary model training, anticipating a 50% improvement in efficiency.
This collaboration signifies the potential of non-NVIDIA AI chips, which could disrupt the GPU monopoly enjoyed by high-end graphics processors
Analysts believe Apple’s high-profile engagement on the AWS platform not only strengthens their partnership but also introduces new dynamics into the cloud services competition, sending a significant signal to the industry: the avenues of AI training solutions are diversifying.
Alphabet (Google A) climbed 1.77%, with Google Cloud announcing a collaboration with Air France-KLM, Europe’s largest airline group, to deploy generative AI technologies on its dataGoogle Cloud’s AI solutions will leverage the airline's considerable data ecosystem to analyze passenger preferences, travel patterns, and to predict aircraft maintenance needs, while ensuring Air France-KLM maintains full ownership and control over their data.
Meta experienced a minor uptick of 0.02%, following comments from Nick Clegg, Meta's president of global affairs, indicating that CEO Mark Zuckerberg seeks to play an active role in discussions aimed at maintaining U.S
leadership in technologyClegg acknowledged that during the pandemic, Meta may have overstepped in content moderation, a transparency effort aimed at soothing criticism against the company’s oversight.
Meanwhile, Intel faced a decline of 2.27% as it embarks on a critical search for a new CEO following Pat Gelsinger's unexpected departureThe company is leaning towards an external selection process, with candidates such as Marvell CEO Matt Murphy and former Cadence CEO Lip Bu Tan in the runningThe search committee has engaged a headhunting firm in light of a depleted internal succession pool, a challenge stemming from years of management upheavalsActing CEO duties are being shared by current CFO David Zinsner and executive vice president Michelle Johnston HolthausIntel, still a key player in the global semiconductor industry, faces a crucial transformation as it attempts to reclaim lost market share, which has plummeted by over $20 billion in recent years.
In the financial sector, most stocks experienced declines with Mizuho Financial falling over 2%, Wells Fargo down by more than 1%, and Visa, Mastercard, and Bank of America dipping close to 1%. Major players such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and others posted slight declines, while Citigroup, American Express, and Travelers edged upward, with American International Group climbing over 1%.
Additionally, the energy sector faced broader setbacks, with Occidental Petroleum and ExxonMobil nearing 3% declines; Murphy Oil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and Imperial Oil fell over 2%. Furthermore, Shell, Schlumberger, and BP reported losses exceeding 1%, as Apachi and Petrobras nudged downwards, while Duke Energy remained flat.
Leave a Reply