Crypto Turmoil Hits South Korea
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On December 3rd, the South Korean cryptocurrency market experienced a dramatic upheaval amid political turmoil, resulting in a sudden flash crash of Bitcoin on the Upbit exchangeWithin minutes, Bitcoin's price plummeted by nearly 30%, briefly reaching around $62,000 (88 million Korean won), before swiftly rebounding to normal levelsMeanwhile, the price of Bitcoin remained relatively stable at approximately $95,000 on other exchanges like CoinbaseThis volatility in the South Korean market quickly attracted attention and raised concerns among global investors.
The subsequent statistics from December 4th indicated a surge in trading volume within the South Korean crypto market, soaring to $34 billion within a 24-hour window—a record high for the yearUpbit, in particular, accounted for an impressive $27.25 billion of that trading volumeThis drastic spike in activity reflected the heightened anxiety and frenzy among local investors, spurred by unfolding local events and market reactions.
Experts analyze that this extraordinary movement in the South Korean digital asset market reflects a broader pattern often seen in moments of political instability, leading to what can be termed as a liquidity crisis driven by panic selling among retail investors
This type of panic-induced price fluctuation is not uncommon; however, it does not fundamentally alter the market’s core dynamicsPolitical factors can trigger short-term instability, primarily when localized market sentiments diverge significantly from the global scene, as seen with the current crisis in South Korea.
In the wake of Bitcoin's sharp decline, many cryptocurrencies also faced similar predicaments on Upbit, with XRP crashing by 60%, plummeting from $2.90 to $1.16, while Ethereum also saw double-digit declinesFurthermore, the South Korean won dropped to its two-year low against the US dollar, exacerbating the overall market fearBehind the curtains of the market chaos, a significant shift was noted, where many ‘whales’ transferred large amounts of Tether (USDT) to the Upbit exchange to capitalize on discounted pricesReports indicated that within an hour of the South Korean president announcing a state of emergency, large traders moved over $163 million worth of USDT onto Upbit, leading to traffic overloads and subsequent trading interruptions.
Yu Jianing, a prominent analyst in the crypto space, observed that the sudden crash exposes the vulnerabilities inherent in the structure and trading ecosystem of the South Korean market
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A considerable influx of capital into Upbit during the crisis seemingly aimed to exploit price discrepancies and achieve market entry pointsThis situation ascertains the shortcomings of liquidity and price discovery mechanisms within the South Korean cryptocurrency scene, raising questions about the fragility of such systems during times of unexpected market stress.
In a statement made by Juan Leon, a senior investment strategist at Bitwise, he elaborated on how the discount observed for Bitcoin in South Korean exchanges demonstrates a predominant stall in liquidity within centralized venuesAlthough Bitcoin is deemed a decentralized asset and available for trading around the clock, specific regional events can induce a level of disarray, causing significant price disruptions.
In addition to Upbit, South Korea also hosts other major exchanges such as Bithumb, Korbit, and Coinone
With the ongoing political volatility, expert opinions suggest that further unexpected fluctuations could occur in the near term, most likely driven by localized factors rather than posing systemic risks to the global digital asset marketHistorical data indicates that markets often rally back quickly after local shocks, especially as the cryptocurrency domain matures; investors are urged to maintain a rational assessment of market fundamentals and refrain from making impulsive decisions stemming from emotional responses.
As one of the world's critical hubs for cryptocurrency trading, fluctuations in the South Korean market inevitably bear implications for the broader global landscapeShort-term declines in South Korea may trigger panic among global investors, catalyzing a general downturn in cryptocurrency pricesHowever, such effects may be limited in scope over the long term due to the globalized nature of cryptocurrency markets, where localized movements do not necessarily dictate overall trends
Additionally, such anomalies could galvanize worldwide investors to reassess the risks and rewards associated with cryptocurrencies, ultimately steering the market towards a more rational development.
Previously, the South Korean cryptocurrency market had sustained a high premium, often referred to as “kimchi premium”, indicating that digital asset prices on local exchanges typically surpassed the global averageThis phenomenon arose primarily due to the market's insular nature, restrictions on capital movements, and heightened participation from domestic retail investorsData collected on December 2 highlighted that retail trading volume within South Korea's crypto asset sector had surged to $18 billion within a mere 24-hour span, outperforming the national stock market by 22%, underscoring the domestic appeal towards cryptocurrencies among investors.
The reasons why the South Korean cryptocurrency market consistently deviates from global trends can be explored through several lenses
Firstly, the strict local regulations for digital asset trading severely limit external participation, inhibiting traders from capitalizing on global arbitrage opportunities to harmonize price discrepanciesFurthermore, the enthusiasm for digital assets among retail investors remains robust, notably among younger demographics who perceive cryptocurrencies as vehicles for rapid wealth accumulation, often skewing market sentiment away from fundamentals.
Moreover, the heightened volatility endemic to the South Korean market is closely tied to its reliance on a limited number of trading platformsDominance by major exchanges like Upbit facilitates extraordinary price fluctuations amongst single platforms, which can result in cascading effects throughout the entire marketThis flash crash underscores the need for regulators and market participants to prioritize liquidity and structural stability to mitigate long-term impacts on market credibility.
It is essential to note that the persistent premium characteristic of the South Korean market has provided a pathway for global investors to engage in arbitrage opportunities, effectively narrowing price gaps through capital movement and functioning as a restoration mechanism for pricing anomalies
Despite the short-term volatility, active reinforcement by arbitrageurs can contribute to restoring equilibrium across markets, thus attenuating transmission effects on the global stage.
The unique features of the South Korean cryptocurrency market can also be attributed to its regulatory policiesWhile the government exhibits a cautious attitude towards cryptocurrencies, it has refrained from imposing an outright ban on tradingThis regulatory atmosphere positions the South Korean market distinctively within the cryptocurrency domain, consequently fuelling market volatilityRecently, there have been adjustments in the regulatory landscape pertaining to cryptocurrencies within South KoreaOn December 3rd, amendments to the “Financial Services Commission Establishment Act” were passed by the cabinet and will take effect on January 1 of the following yearThis legislation confirms that operators of cryptocurrency businesses such as Dunamu (Upbit), Bithumb, and Coinone will be subject to regulatory fees under the “Virtual Asset User Protection Law,” alongside oversight from the Financial Supervisory Service beginning next year.
The implementation of a 20% capital gains tax on cryptocurrency earnings in South Korea, originally set to take effect on January 1, 2022, faced strong opposition from both investors and industry experts, resulting in its postponement to January 1, 2025. On December 1, the ruling Democratic Party of Korea announced a change in position, deciding to delay the plan until 2027.
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